More Damned Lies And Statistics Pdf
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- There are lies, damned lies, and statistics
- More Damned Lies and Statistics: How Numbers Confuse Public Issues
Publisher: Colorado State University Pueblo. This is a text book written in meant to cover the basic concepts of statistics for a one semester undergraduate course. The contents include: descriptive statistics population, variables, samples, graphs , numerical descriptions measures of Comprehensiveness rating: 4 see less. The contents include: descriptive statistics population, variables, samples, graphs , numerical descriptions measures of center and dispersion , Bi-variate Statistics scatterplots, correlation, independent and dependent variables , Linear regression, probability theory, and research methods population parameter, causality, control group, blinking, etc.
What legitimately to conclude from government statistics relating to the criminal justice system in England and Wales since their inception from has provoked neither great interest nor much controversy amongst historians. Although the defects of the data are well known, there has been a tendency to settle for using the data as a basis for coming to an understanding of the phenomena they were accepted as setting out to chart.
Relying on published sources, Dr Howard Taylor has challenged this consensus by offering a new reading of the data in the century up to He argues that the data represent not simply flawed though essentially bona fide product but, on the contrary, conscious attempts to mask the suppression of the real levels of criminality, including murder.
Approaching the data from a supply side perspective, he claims these ends were furthered at times by under-recording, by consciously ungenerous funding, and by manipulating prosecution practice. It is contended that Dr Taylor's arguments allow insufficiently for the decentralised and disaggregated character of criminal justice policy and practice, exaggerate the significance of adventitious statistical phenomena, and mistakenly attribute premeditated design for outcomes there was both no capacity to encompass and for which there are adequate alternative explanations.
Broadly, he has maintained that the outputs of the criminal justice system from the s to the s were consciously manipulated by the executive and its agencies to misrepresent the true incidence of crime.
The first is a necessary preliminary to establish the essential operating background to criminal justice policy development in the last years. Unless that is done, discussion cannot comprehensibly identify what is, and what is not, significant in interpreting the data under review. Despite the existence of powerful UK-wide institutions such as the monarchy and the Westminster Parliament, the UK is a union as opposed to a unitary state.
Administratively, it consists of three distinct parts viz. Northern Ireland and, until , the whole of the island of Ireland , Scotland, and England and Wales. Although devolution has given assemblies and executives of varying kinds to Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales, for criminal justice purposes England and Wales continues as a single unit.
It follows that the separate operations of the criminal justice systems within the UK have never been treated statistically as a single unit.
Although there was some initiative in that direction in the nineteenth century, it did not prosper 4. There are 43 police forces which are now all accountable to local police authorities. Apart from the limited remit of the Director of Public Prosecutions originating in , there was no national system of public prosecution operating until under the Prosecution of Offenders Act Even then, no state monopoly of prosecution was created because the way was still left open for private prosecutions in addition to those undertaken by a considerable range of statutory bodies.
Royal judges have been circumambulatory since the early twelfth century. Since government has contributed on an increasing scale to the costs of local justice in respect, first, of policing costs until in London only and, secondly, from of prosecution costs. Throughout, government appointed all the judges in the senior courts and controlled the system which appointed the magistrates.
In contrast, the powers of the police received relatively less legislative attention until very recent times, largely because they were left for long subjected to the common law and judicial oversight rather than statutory regulation. But nineteenth century governments did not necessarily sweep all before them and always get their way. The Constabulary Act was preceded by the rejection of Palmerston's attempt to legislate on the same subject.
On the contrary, its relative inviolability behind what was for long a challenging moat meant that central government did not have to insist on administrative forms wholly under its control. The fifth commenced in with the inauguration of the crime surveys i. These originated in reforms respectively of and That of under the direction of the Home Office official, Samuel Redgrave inaugurated the publication of offences whose commission came to the attention of the police, an initiative made possible only by the Police Act of the previous year.
The reform divorced the criminal and judicial statistics into separate series, dropped some of the less worthy material, and tightened up the counting rules to produce more uniformity of reporting amongst the nearly separate police forces. Thereafter, the annual series increasingly became the base for more detailed individual studies and were complemented by additional series e. Although now more sophisticated, and complemented also by the crime surveys, it is essentially this system that persists in the annual publications of today.
It is not sufficiently appreciated by modem students of criminal statistics that all the major limitations of this source had already been perceived and expressed with force and clarity by nineteenth century inquirers The figures showing the numbers of crimes and consequently the proportions must be taken with a great deal of caution.
Troup gave much early attention to the problem which was particularly intractable when there were well over separate police forces. Subsequent attempts were made to improve the quality of the data.
For example, the Perks Committee undertook a thorough view during the s. There have been continuing exchanges since between the Home Office's now thoroughly professionalised statistical services and the police, and important developments in the counting rules whose effect will be to give a clearer account of the victim's experience and allow greater comparability between notifiable offences recorded by the police and the product of the victim surveys More recently still, Home Office Ministers have been prepared to accept the recommendations of a study by the Inspectorate of Constabulary concerned with the accuracy of police recording of crime and which could result in raising recorded crime figures by as much as a quarter In another sense, of course, they will always come late because their interest is backward looking.
It is also utterly dependent on pre-existing data in whose construction they cannot have had any hand and whose interpretation, like other historical records, is fraught with difficulty. It is never enough to look at the data without understanding the motives and working methods of their compilers. Whilst some differences of perspective are to be expected where the former operate with retrospection and the latter are more preoccupied with explaining the present and predicting the future, historians have seemed relatively unfamiliar with the extensive sociological literature about data sources in which they could be expected to have at least a similar interest.
Thus, discussion of crime trends has often started and finished with analyses of the criminal statistics, especially those of police recorded crime. In their effort to account for evident changes in public behaviour during the nineteenth century, they have sometimes leant heavily on the official statistics and have treated them with a respect and lack of scepticism, which probably would have surprised Redgrave and Troup.
Far from showing the criminal statistics unthinking and exaggerated respect, he has been properly determined to show them no unearned respect at all, and look closely amongst other things at what they reveal about the impact of criminal justice services on those affected by crime, including the victims of crime. As to fruitfulness, for example, the hypothesis draws useful attention to just how little some of the inputs have been studied, and how far the division and re-division of criminal business between the courts was manipulated.
Of course, a settled view is not necessarily synonymous with the truth, and the question therefore is which view falls to be preferred? It has, indeed, been argued that they remain fallible, and serious doubts raised on that score in s 24 led to the review of death certification in England and Wales undertaken by the Broderick Committee which reported in Subsequent cases show on occasion that there still can never be any room for complacency about the certainty of discovery.
This suggests either a very ineffective form of control, or raises the question of how that degree of variation could be compatible with conscious manipulation.
If there was manipulation, then it would have had to be of a very high degree of sophistication sustained by an alliance of well over separate police forces for a period of more than a century to keep to a pre-arranged and unchanging mark of an average of not more than l50 cases a year. In the latter case, granted the highly disaggregated character of the criminal justice process already observed, that such a degree of agreement could be reached at all, still less achieved and sustained, is inherently implausible.
This is a remarkably high degree of volatility not less significant for being acknowledged by Howard Taylor. In practice, it must seem much more likely, because of the range of incidence, that the average, far from being a target, can only have been an arithmetical accident devoid of anything other than arithmetical significance.
What is significant, in other words, is not the average but the volatility. These points taken together, it may be judged, do not so much qualify Howard Taylor's interpretation as invalidate it so far as the quantitative data are concerned.
Both these assertions assume that contemporary financing entailed unbreakable budgetary ceilings. Rather, the material more convincingly demonstrates a lack of effectiveness and an unacceptable degree on occasion of complacency but no conspiracy with the police and the Director of Public Prosecutions I shall now therefore turn to deal with it in the context of the important points he seeks to establish about the prosecution system as a whole.
It should first be accepted that Howard Taylor has somewhat modified some of the positions he took in his original thesis, and he does not now seek to maintain that there was an explicit regime of cash limiting in anything like the modern sense.
However, the ghost of that view does in some respects remain to haunt his argument. For example, in his Economic History Review article, Treasury cash limits are claimed for and at pp. A very considerable volatility is also displayed, if unremarked, in the data displayed in Figure 1. Further, it is argued that the article mistakes a long-running argument between local and central government about how costs should be shared for an argument about how often they should be incurred.
Any expedient founded on the principle of reducing the fair measure of compensation for expense, time and trouble allowed to the prosecutor and the witnesses, would, in our opinion be opposed to justice and to sound policy. The course of legislation on this subject has been already shown to have lain uniformly in the opposite direction.
For example, the article offers no continuous account of the tortuous evolution of prosecution policy and legislation in a still limited administrative machine They maintained that the Treasury had often been paying costs that were entirely a local responsibility or not properly incurred.
Overall, there appeared to be an inverse relationship between prosecution costs and the number of committals, especially in some Welsh counties the Examiners calculated that universal application of Denbigh rates would double total expenditure A circular was issued in summarising the Treasury criteria Whilst it is true that Seton advocated paying expenses at the lowest rate, he also explained that he was not upheld and the Treasury endorsed the more generous allowances of the Home Secretary's tariff of The tariff stood until , but at no time extended to the fees for counsel or attorneys which remained locally determined.
The judges side-stepped the issue by maintaining that, because it related to a Vote, the matter could be determined only by Parliament Phillimore the lawyer M. In response, and after extensive consultation and calculating that a compulsory, salaried system would not cost much more than the existing system, the Home Office introduced in May its own thorough-going Bill of 32 clauses and 3 schedules which, if successful, would have put in place a regime not wholly dissimilar from that finally established in There was insufficient time for the Bill to make progress, and the subsequent change of government resulted in a change of tack.
Finally, the Costs in Criminal Cases Act rationalised the statutory lumber from A crucial point is that then, as now, whether a prosecution should occur at all was, and is, as much a subjective as an objective question. Quite the contrary. Of course, the Home Office was not an entirely disinterested party, and there must have been some inhibitory effect even if Treasury estimates were supplemented as necessary to defray actually incurred local expenditure. No-one seems, however, to have regarded as satisfactory a situation where they were compelled to act in an environment which continued to find difficulty in devising adequate mechanisms for recycling resources between local and national levels.
In muddling through, improvements did occur but the most important was the incidental effect of putting into place a permanent, paid constabulary throughout the country which, without anyone planning it though there was clearly Home Office encouragement 46 , became the public prosecutor in default of anyone else. The first of these deals with the rising crime statistics during , and the second focuses more narrowly on the balance between types of non-indictable crime where motoring offences eclipsed drink and similar public order offences.
In both cases, the behaviour of the police is scrutinised with particular reference to professional self-concern. More generally, it may also reflect a fashionable iconoclasm about the administrative state to which attention has been drawn elsewhere In a situation where there are more sufficient alternative explanations of the same phenomena, there seems little reason why the supply side theories as advanced should be preferred, granted in addition the implausible degree of concerted conspiracy they posit.
But the data shows that the police had not ceased to deal with drunkenness, still less had switched away from it. On the contrary, after the figures for drunkenness convictions had fallen during , they rose continuously from 43 cases to 52 in , the last fully peacetime year. In other words, as is common in the real world, change was not then, any more than now, an entirely linear process.
The trend has yet clearly to change direction the most recent figures at the time of writing show an increase and the downturn of the past six years appears to have been corroborated by the British Crime Survey only after a delay. As Troup tried to emphasise a century ago, they are not facts in the same sense that court appearances and decisions are facts.
They reflect the experience and decisions of a multiplicity of actors in the interactive social process of criminal justice.
They are of their time, and are appealed to, and employed for, the uses of that time. It follows that they will not be internally consistent over time. In his reforms, Redgrave constructed them so that they could answer to his belief in the existence of criminal classes. In the current age of unbelief, we look to them for data about offences at least as much as we look to them to explain offenders.
But no more now than in the past are they to be taken at face value. There are, we all know, three sorts of lie. There are statistics, crime statistics and police crime statistics
There are lies, damned lies, and statistics
EN English Deutsch. Your documents are now available to view. Confirm Cancel. Joel Best. University of California Press
More Damned Lies and Statistics: How Numbers Confuse Public Issues
Joel Best identifies what is essential about numbers or statistics [Editor of StatLit. Every statistic is socially constructed in the most operational sense of that term. The social construction of statistics does not imply malevolence, negligence or even opportunism. The social construction of statistics goes beyond chance, bias and confounding.
In this sequel to the acclaimed Damned Lies and Statistics, which the Boston Globe said "deserves a place next to the dictionary on every school, media, and home-office desk," Joel Best continues his straightforward, lively, and humorous account of how statistics are produced, used, and misused by everyone from researchers to journalists. Underlining the importance of critical thinking in all matters numerical, Best illustrates his points with examples of good and bad statistics about such contemporary concerns as school shootings, fatal hospital errors, bullying, teen suicides, deaths at the World Trade Center, college ratings, the risks of divorce, racial profiling, and fatalities caused by falling coconuts. More Damned Lies and Statistics encourages all of us to think in a more sophisticated and skeptical manner about how statistics are used to promote causes, create fear, and advance particular points of view. The author's use of pertinent, socially important examples documents the life-altering consequences of understanding or misunderstanding statistical information.
What legitimately to conclude from government statistics relating to the criminal justice system in England and Wales since their inception from has provoked neither great interest nor much controversy amongst historians. Although the defects of the data are well known, there has been a tendency to settle for using the data as a basis for coming to an understanding of the phenomena they were accepted as setting out to chart. Relying on published sources, Dr Howard Taylor has challenged this consensus by offering a new reading of the data in the century up to He argues that the data represent not simply flawed though essentially bona fide product but, on the contrary, conscious attempts to mask the suppression of the real levels of criminality, including murder. Approaching the data from a supply side perspective, he claims these ends were furthered at times by under-recording, by consciously ungenerous funding, and by manipulating prosecution practice.
About the Book
Paul Ehrenfest, carrying on the work, died similarly in Now it is our turn to study statistical mechanics. In our last post we simplified how the gas particles inside the engine behave, but how do we know how they move, what their velocity is, and if they even escape through the hole at the bottom of the engine? We may not know the exact position of every individual particle, but seeing as there are so many of them, we can assume that they are uniformly distributed across the engine. Can we assume the same of the velocity? Imagine you're watching a race - How are the people spread out across the track? Usually there are a few people in the lead and a few people in the back, while most people are somewhere in the middle.
В обычных обстоятельствах это насторожило бы Стратмора, но ведь он прочитал электронную почту Танкадо, а там говорилось, что весь трюк и заключался в линейной мутации. Решив, что никакой опасности нет, Стратмор запустил файл, минуя фильтры программы Сквозь строй. Сьюзан едва могла говорить. - Никакой Цифровой крепости не существует, - еле слышно пробормотала она под завывание сирены и, обессилев, склонилась над своим компьютером. Танкадо использовал наживку для дурачков… и АНБ ее проглотило. Сверху раздался душераздирающий крик Стратмора. ГЛАВА 86 Когда Сьюзан, едва переводя дыхание, появилась в дверях кабинета коммандера, тот сидел за своим столом, сгорбившись и низко опустив голову, и в свете монитора она увидела капельки пота у него на лбу.
Мидж. Скорее. ГЛАВА 44 Фил Чатрукьян, киля от злости, вернулся в лабораторию систем безопасности. Слова Стратмора эхом отдавались в его голове: Уходите немедленно. Это приказ. Чатрукьян пнул ногой урну и выругался вслух - благо лаборатория была пуста: - Диагностика, черт ее дери.
Что с тобой? - в голосе Стратмора слышалась мольба. Лужа крови под телом Хейла расползалась на ковре, напоминая пятно разлитой нефти.